|

The 108-basis-point rate cut by the People's Bank of China last week
tells us Beijing is now serious about boosting the economy. And with the
one-year lending rate still standing at 5.58%, the good news is that
China has scope for further easing.
But at the same time, the glass-half-empty interpretation is that China
now recognizes its economy is in freefall as the global slowdown
triggers a domino-like collapse in private business.
Last week, China's top planner Zhang Ping said the government has been
forced to act to stave off massive unemployment and social unrest. The
data coming out for November are expected to show an accelerated
slowdown. One economist predicted that 1 in 5 migrant workers could lose
their jobs.
As China's quasi-market economy faces potentially the worst decline in
two decades, the capacity of business to cope with a cyclical downturn
is being brought sharply into focus.
Going missing increasingly appears the favorite exit strategy for
private business chiefs after a wave of closures.
The "Vanishing Business Owners" phenomenon made headlines last week when
Hong Kong-listed Gome Electrical Appliances (HK:493: news, chart,
profile) was unable to confirm the whereabouts of its founder and
Chairman Wong Kwong-yu for nine days. Shareholders finally learned
Friday that the billionaire tycoon had not fled China but has been
answering questions with the Beijing police.
Leaving aside the issue of whether Wong has something to answer for, the
case highlights the uncertainty facing business owners (and investors)
when things go wrong in China.
Across China, thousands of business owners have literally disappeared
overnight, leaving behind ghost-like factories and legions of unemployed
migrant workers. This chaotic unraveling looks to be more than just a
reaction to a down cycle.
One entrepreneur explained to me last week that many normally
law-abiding business owners conclude their only option is to take flight
rather than take their chances with China's opaque and uncertain legal
system and the potentially large costs involved contemplating
bankruptcy.
In Guangdong this year, the introduction of new rules on employment
protection, medical benefits and wage rates have certainly made any
restructuring more costly. Hong Kong factory owners will feel the brunt
as the biggest investors in Guangdong.
Additional problems according to anecdotal reports are that authorities
often respond to signs a business is in trouble with an aggressive tax
collection policy, adding further strain to businesses.
Last week it was announced the two provinces of Shandong and Hubei
banned companies from firing staff without government permission. In
theory, that would make sacking staff a criminal offense.
There has always been this conflict with the risk-taking nature of
capitalism and the command-and-control tendencies of the mainland
Chinese government.
Addressing some of the concerns that are forcing business owners to up
stakes looks to be a growing challenge for policymakers. The government
in Beijing will also be aware that much of its legitimacy rests on a
promise to deliver economic growth and jobs.
Various China skeptics have long argued that China lacks the
institutions to make its market economy and self-styled brand of
capitalism work successfully in the long term.
Will Hutton, for instance, in his 'Writing on the Wall" novel says that
despite China's impressive economic achievements, its Achilles heel is
the lack of institutions necessary for sustainable progress, such as
rule of law, an independent judiciary and an idea that government needs
to be accountable.
While these weaknesses can be papered over in good times, they are more
likely to be exposed at a time of crisis, when the fault lines appear.
The naturally cyclical nature of capitalism needs a reliable framework
that that keeps uncertainty and risk to a minimum, in order to work
through the bust as well as the boom.
While the fiscal and monetary stimuli introduced by Beijing will
undoubtedly help to keep the economy moving, something more will be
needed to deal with these structural frailties. Otherwise, the downturn
risks being more painful than many currently expect, as more business
owners decide to take their money and run.
|