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MOUNTAIN HOUSE, Calif. — This town, 59 feet above sea level, is
the most underwater community in America.
One homeowner bought a foreclosed property on Prosperity Street in
Mountain House, Calif.
This week, a real estate office in Tracy, Calif., near Mountain House,
was advertising foreclosure sales.
Because of plunging home values, almost 90 percent of homeowners here
owe more on their mortgages than their houses are worth, according to
figures released Monday. That is the highest percentage in the country.
The average homeowner in Mountain House is “underwater,” as it is known,
by $122,000.
A visit to the area over the last couple of days shows how the
nationwide housing crisis is contributing to a broad slowdown of the
American economy, as families who feel burdened by high mortgages are
pulling back on their spending.

Jerry Martinez, a general contractor, and his wife, Marcie, an accounts
clerk, are among the struggling owners in Mountain House. Burdened with
credit card debt and a house losing value by the day, they are learning
the necessity of self-denial for themselves and their three children.
No more family bowling night. No more dinners at Chili’s or Applebee’s.
No more going to the movies.
“We make decent money, but it takes a tremendous amount to pay the
mortgage,” Mr. Martinez, 33, said.
First American CoreLogic, a real estate data company, has calculated
that 7.6 million properties in the country were underwater as of Sept.
30, while another 2.1 million were in striking distance. That is nearly
a quarter of all homes with mortgages. The 20 hardest-hit ZIP codes are
all in four states: California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona.
“Most people pay very little attention to what their equity stake is if
they can make the mortgage,” said First American’s chief economist, Mark
Fleming. “They think it’s a bummer if the value has gone down, but they
are rooted in their house.”
And yet the magnitude of the current declines has little precedent.
“When my house is valued at 50 percent less than it was, does this begin
to challenge the way I’m going to behave?” he said.
Mountain House, a planned community set among the fields and pastures of
the Central Valley about 60 miles east of San Francisco, provides a
discomfiting answer.
The cutbacks by the Martinezes and their neighbors are reflected in a
modest strip of about a dozen stores in nearby Tracy. Three are empty
while a fourth has only a temporary tenant. Some of those that remain
say they are just hanging on.

“Before summer, things were O.K. Not now,” said My Phan of Hailey Nails
and Spa. “Customers say they cannot afford to do their nails.” She
estimated her business had fallen by half.
At Cribs, Kids and Teens, Jason Heinemann says his business is also down
50 percent. He opened the store in early 2006; last month was his worst
ever. “Grandparents are big buyers of kids’ furniture, but when their
401(k)’s are dropping $10,000 and $20,000 a week, they don’t come in,”
he said.
Mr. Heinemann laid off his one employee, a contribution to an
unemployment rate in San Joaquin County that has surpassed 10 percent.
He dropped his advertising in the local newspaper and luxury magazines.
As Mr. Heinemann’s sales sink, he is tightening his own belt. “I used to
be a big spender,” he said. “We’re setting a budget for Christmas.”
In the window of another tenant, Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, a placard
shows two happy homeowners holding a sign saying, “Someday we’ll owe a
lot less than we thought.”
Someday, maybe, but not now. First American has been refining its
figures on underwater mortgages, formally known as negative equity. The
data company evaluated 42 million residential properties with mortgages.
(Though Maine, Mississippi, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, West
Virginia and Wyoming were excluded because of insufficient data, none of
those states have been central to the mortgage crisis.) A computer model
was used to calculate current values, using comparable sales. More than
10 million homes do not have mortgages.
The figures rank the 20 ZIP codes that are furthest underwater. The
95391 ZIP code, which includes all of Mountain House and some properties
outside it, has the unwelcome distinction of being first in the country.
Out of 1,856 mortgages in the ZIP code, First American calculates that
nearly 90 percent are underwater. Only 209 owners owe less on their
mortgages than the homes are worth.
The first homes in Mountain House were sold in 2003, just as the real
estate boom began to go into overdrive. Its relative proximity to San
Francisco drew many who traded a longer commuting trip for a bigger
place.

The Martinezes bought their house in early 2005 for $630,000. It is now
worth about $420,000. They have an interest-only mortgage, a popular
loan during the boom that allows owners to forgo principal payments for
a time.
But these loans eventually become unmanageable. In 2015, Mr. Martinez
said, his monthly payments will be $12,000 a month. He laughed and shook
his head at the absurdity of it.
They fear the future, so they stay home. They rent movies. They play
board games. (But not Monopoly — with its real estate theme, it reminds
them too much of real life.)
“It’s a vicious circle,” Mr. Martinez said. The economy is faltering
because he and millions of others are not spending. This killed his
career in home remodeling this year, and threatens his current work as a
contractor on commercial properties.
For the moment, the family is just trying to hold on. But Mr. Martinez
acknowledges that it has entered his mind to turn his house back over to
the bank. “By next June, if things aren’t better, I’m walking,” Mr.
Martinez said.
Many in Mountain House have already taken that option. Banks took over
101 properties in the 95391 ZIP code in the third quarter, according to
DataQuick Information Systems.
Even relatively recent arrivals are feeling a pinch.
Kenny Rogers, a data security specialist, moved into Mountain House last
year, buying a foreclosed property on Prosperity Street for $380,000.
But the decline in values has been so fierce that he too is underwater.
He has cut his DVD buying from 50 a month to perhaps one, and is waiting
until the Christmas sales to buy a high-definition television. He does
not indulge much anymore in his hobbies of scuba diving and flying.
“Best to wait for a better price, or do without,” Mr. Rogers, 52, said.
People deciding to do without are hurting a second mall close to
Mountain House. There is a shuttered Linens ’n Things, part of a chain
that went bankrupt. Another empty storefront used to be a Fashion Bug.
Soccer World could not make it. Shoe Pavilion is festooned with
going-out-of-business signs.
Chris and Janet Ackerson can survey this carnage from their own store
with a certain equanimity. Their business, a member of the Vino 100
chain of wine outlets, is doing well.
The store opened at the beginning of the year, so long-term trends are
not clear. But sales did not plunge in the last few months as they did
for so many other retailers. Four more people joined the store’s wine
club last weekend.
“My house is underwater, so I’m not doing too much impulse shopping or
any renovation. But I’m not cutting back on this,” said Ray Lopez, a
database administrator, as he placed a $24 petite sirah on the counter.
“Life’s too short.”

Shares on Wall Street tumbled more than 4 percent on Wednesday as
frightened investors wondered how long the economic slowdown will last,
how deep it will cut, and whether Washington can do anything to stanch
the bleeding.
Financial markets compounded their early losses in afternoon trading,
ending down for a third day. The Dow Jones industrial average fell
411.30 points or 4.73 percent, while the broader Standard & Poor’s
500-stock index was down more than 5 percent for the day and nearly 9
percent for the week.
“It’s just a downward spiral caused by fear,” said Richard Sparks,
senior equity analyst at Schaeffer’s Investment Research. “We’ve got bad
news everywhere.”
Wall Street spent the day looking at Washington for guidance and
reassurance, and investors did not like what they saw, analysts said.
“Wall Street is increasingly taking its cues from D.C.,” Mark Zandi,
chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com, said by e-mail message.
“Policymakers are deciding who survives and who doesn’t.”
The financial markets had been trading down all morning, but began a
sharp slide just before Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. appeared
at a lectern to discuss the $700 billion financial bailout. Mr. Paulson
said government assets would not be used to buy troubled assets, as
originally planned, but would instead go to buying stock in banks and
infusing money into other financial institutions.
Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at Standard & Poor’s Equity
Research, described Mr. Paulson’s approach as “ad hoc,” and said that
investors, hungry for a steady, deliberate recovery plan, were not
happy.
“I think that in some ways it’s investors who are disappointed with
Washington and think that Paulson has become a retailer engaged in a
bait and switch,” Mr. Stovall said. “Wall Street is not that close to
Broadway, but I think Wall Streeters feel better when a scenario is
choreographed well.”
Oil prices also extended their decline, falling more than 5 percent to
settle at $56.16 a barrel, their lowest level since March 2007.
Wednesday began with more troubling news from the retail sector. Best
Buy said its sales at stores open at least a year could decline 5
percent to 15 percent from November until February. Best Buy lowered its
earnings expectations to $2.30 to $2.90 a share, compared with an
earlier prediction of $3.25 to $3.40.

“We had expected it was coming; it was just a matter of when,” said
Christopher Horvers, senior retail analyst at J.P. Morgan. In a
statement, Best Buy’s chief executive, Brad Anderson, called the
economic changes of the last two months “seismic” and said the company
was facing “the most difficult climate we’ve ever seen.”
“Best Buy simply can’t adjust fast enough to maintain our earnings
momentum for this year,” Mr. Anderson said.
The dour outlook from Best Buy was the latest jolt from the retail
sector, coming days after its rival, Circuit City, filed for bankruptcy
protection. It follows a litany of grim financial news from well-known
companies like Neiman Marcus, Starbucks, Gap and Nordstrom that show
consumer spending contracting and retail revenue shrinking.
And analysts said they expected the bleeding to continue through the
holiday season.
“We’re not done,” said Stacey Widlitz, a retail analyst at Pali
Research. “This is just the beginning. Retailers are saying they’ve
never seen this kind of shift in consumer behavior in this short a
period of time.”
Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital, said the battered
retail numbers were evidence that America’s years-long spending bender
had finally ended. He said the bankruptcy filing of Circuit City, which
continues to operate, helped to signal a “permanent shift” in the
service economy, and said other companies would fail before the economic
crisis abated.
“The old expression, ‘Shop till you drop’ — we did it,” he said.
Shares in General Motors and Ford Motor were trading higher Wednesday
morning as lawmakers in Washington called for a lame-duck session to
address the imperiled auto industry. Recent financial reports show Ford
and G.M. burning through cash as their sales fall, and Congressional
leaders called for emergency legislation to keep them from being forced
into bankruptcy.
“In order to prevent the failure of one or more of the major American
automobile manufacturers, which would have a devastating impact on our
economy, particularly on the men and women who work in that industry,
Congress and the Bush administration must take immediate action,” Nancy
Pelosi, the House speaker, said in a statement.
The drop in oil prices, meanwhile, came as the International Energy
Agency, the world’s leading oil forecaster, suggested that oil
consumption was falling faster than anticipated because of the global
economic slump.
The slump means that oil prices could easily fall to $50 a barrel,
according to oil specialists, as consumers cut their spending in
response to the economic slowdown.
These concerns led OPEC’s president, Chakib Khelil, to repeat on
Wednesday that the oil cartel could decide once more to trim its
supplies when it meets in the Algerian town of Oran next month. He
hinted that the group might even decide to reduce its production soon if
prices keep sliding.
“Probably OPEC will not have a choice but to take another decision in
Oran, if not before Oran, if the prices continue their decline in the
market,” Mr. Khelil, who is also Algeria’s oil minister, told Reuters.
At its last meeting, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries agreed to cut its production by 1.5 million barrels a day. The
cuts were to take effect Nov. 1.
The price of gold fell $14 to $718 an ounce, and commodity prices
ranging from coffee to soybeans to silver were also lower on falling
demand.

Christina Park keeps this a big secret from her husband but is not
ashamed to tell all her friends: She shops at a secondhand store for
clothing every day.
Well, every day but Sunday, she said last week at Plato's Closet, a
Skokie, Ill., franchise that she boasted of being among the first in
line when it opened its doors more than two years ago.
Video: Shoppers Seek Second-hand Bargains
In tough economic times, cash-strapped consumers are finding bargains at
second-hand shops. MarketWatch's Jennifer Waters reports.
"There are so many great deals here," she said, pointing to the $8 pair
of shoes she was wearing and the $12 top. In fact, her entire outfit,
including jewelry and handbag, were purchased at Plato's Closet, which
buys and sells slightly used clothing and accessories, mostly for girls
and women 13 years old to 25 years old.
Park said her money goes much farther at Plato's Closet than it does at
stores like Abercrombie & Fitch where she's hard-pressed to find
anything for $20, much less a pair of shoes and top. Plus, if she looks
hard enough she'll be able to find Abercrombie & Fitch items at Plato's
closet for a fraction of the price of it would have cost at Abercrombie
& Fitch. "Teenagers are so picky, this is a good place to find things
for them," she said.
For some teenagers, selling clothes and shopping for clothes at Plato's
Closet is not unlike scouring a friend's closet. The clothes are no more
than a year old, they're clean and in good form.
"The stigma on second-hand or thrift-store shopping has always been 'I
don't want to buy someone else's used stuff,'" said Steve Murphy,
president of Winmark Corp., which owns the Plato's Closet franchise.
"They come into our stores and they don't even know that it's used
stuff. They're amazed when see that the quality that they're getting is
like new but at half the price."
Winmark
WINA 14.90, -0.10, -0.7%) owns three other franchises that buy and sell
slightly used items: Play It Again Sports, Once Upon a Child and Music
Go Round.
While major retailers like Macy's, Nordstrom and J.C. Penney's are
reeling from slumping sales and a downbeat consumer whose confidence is
dropping daily, Winmark is capitalizing on this shift to frugality.
All four franchises are turning in double-digit increases in same-store
sales, the retail industry's measure of sales at stores open longer than
a year, and the company reported a 19% jump in profit.
Price, environment a big factor
Murphy quickly acknowledges that a disadvantaged economy is a big
advantage for second-hand and thrift stores.
"We're in a perfect storm with our economy like this and low consumer
confidence people are still out there looking for value. They don't want
to pay the exorbitant prices they were paying at other retailers," he
said. "Couple that with the recycling movement and going green and
customers are talking a lot about us and blogging about us."
The same is true at local thrift shops as well as the Salvation Army and
Goodwill Industries, the nation's two largest charitable resale
organizations that have seen year-to-date overall sales increases of 6%
to 15%.
Comparatively, Macy's reported a 7% drop in sales and a loss for the
third quarter.
The National Association of Resale and Thrift Stores said a survey of
its members showed that 66.2% posted a sales surge of an average 35%
from January to August compared with the same period in 2007.
What's more, 85.8% of stores said they have seen an increase in new
shoppers while another 74.5% said new sellers, consignors and donors
were coming in the doors.
"We have people who were once donors now coming to us and saying they
need our help," said Major George Hood, a national spokesman for the
Salvation Army. Some Salvation Army stores across the country have seen
sales rise at a far quicker rate than donations.
"We're worried we might run out of inventory," Hood said.
Those sales increases certainly speak to the hardships that people are
facing as they try to keep financial balls in the air amid a recession
in the U.S. that is leaving many without jobs.
It also underscores the new attitudes toward frugality and recycling.
"People like that they're able to recycle their clothes here and get
some money for them too," said Tammy Toren who owns the Plato's Closet
in Skokie, Ill.
Shopping tips
And for many, shopping resale is not unlike a treasure hunt. The NARTS
Web site offers consumers these tips when shopping at thrift or
second-hand stores:

*
Look for quality of workmanship and materials. A resale item of high
quality might cost more than a lesser-quality new item. The workmanship,
style and value of any well-made item from a sofa to a designer outfit
provide more value at resale.
*
Know the retail prices of items you are looking for to appreciate how
much money you will save by shopping resale.
*
Explore a variety of resale shops to find several that will become your
favorites.
*
Get to know the staff. Sign up for mailing lists to receive sale
notices, customer-only premiums and valuable information sent out in
their flyers or newsletters.
*
Check all items carefully and know the store's return/exchange policies
before purchasing. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index
lost 5.2% during the day, ending below the 1,500 level for the first
time since May 2003. See full story.
Outside of the tech sector, shares of Crocs Inc. (CROX:
crocs inc com
CROX 1.90, -0.25, -11.6%) sank 34% to $1.25 after the footwear maker
swung to a quarterly loss and warned of more losses ahead. The company,
known for its brightly colored line of sandals, said it expects to lose
between 50 cents and 65 cents in the fourth quarter on sales of up to
$120 million.
For the third quarter, Crocs swung to a net loss of $148 million, or
$1.79 a share, hurt by inventory write-downs and restructuring charges.
Sales fell 32% to $174 million. In the year-ago period, Crocs earned $57
million, or 66 cents a share. Crocs warned more losses are coming as it
downsizes. Shares of Crocs closed ahead of the report at $1.90.
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