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1 7 09 Job losses and plans to lay off workers hammered the struggling
U.S. economy in the final month of 2008, according to private reports
that could foreshadow surprisingly grim labor market data from the
government on Friday.
U.S. private employers shed 693,000 jobs in December, up sharply from
the revised 476,000 jobs lost in November and far more than economists
estimated, a report by ADP Employer Services said on Wednesday.
The data comes two days ahead of the government's more comprehensive
non-farm payrolls report, which unlike the ADP numbers includes public
sector jobs as well.
Analysts said there was reason to expect a worse outcome in non-farm
payrolls than their original projection of 500,000 jobs lost for the
economy in December, which was the median of economists' forecasts in an
earlier Reuters poll.
"This is shockingly awful," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist
at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York.
"If the recent relationship between the ADP numbers -- after their
recent revisions -- and the official payroll data holds, then we should
expect a number of about minus -700,000 on Friday, the biggest drop in
59 years."
Most analysts noted Wednesday's ADP report was the first released under
a new methodology, warning of uncertainty over its forecasting power.
Still, the new system was designed to more closely mirror the
government's monthly payrolls results.
Separate data showed planned layoffs at U.S. firms eased in December
from the previous month's seven-year high but were up an astounding 275
percent annually as the year-old recession cut a huge swathe of
destruction through job market.
The economic slump, which is likely to be the longest since the Great
Depression of the 1930s, also produced the worst year of layoffs since
2003, outplacement company Challenger, Gray & Christmas added in its
monthly report on U.S. job cuts.
The grim data helped push U.S. stocks lower. Government bond prices,
which generally benefit from signs of economic weakness, pared their
losses in the immediate wake of the ADP release but later went back on
the slide.
Underlining the bleak outlook, the Congressional Budget Office said in
new forecasts released on Wednesday that it expected the U.S. economy to
contract 2.2 percent in 2009 before recovering in 2010 to grow 1.5
percent.
MORE PESSIMISTIC NOW
The ADP December job losses were the biggest since the survey's launch
in 2001.
"Expectations for Friday's nonfarm payroll release will be more
pessimistic than they were before this morning's data round," said
Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York.
"For now, the consensus is minus-500,000, but we have to assume people
are thinking minus-600,000 or more is possible."
Indeed, Scott Anderson, senior economist at Wells Fargo Economics in
Minneapolis, said he raised his forecast to "at least 600,000" December
job losses from an earlier projection of 500,000.
Anderson also raised his forecast for the unemployment rate to 7.1
percent from 7.0 percent before. The median forecast for unemployment in
the Reuters poll was a rise to 7.0 percent from November's 6.7 percent.
Analysts at RDQ Economics also said they raised their expectations to
600,000 job losses from their earlier projection of 500,000.
Shepherdson, at High Frequency Economics, said even the best case
scenario implied a payrolls drop of 568,000.
Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, which jointly
developed the ADP report, said the ADP data was consistent with a loss
of about 670,000 jobs in the payrolls report, assuming some 20,000
government jobs would be added.
Worse yet, he said he still expected a little more than 2 million U.S.
job losses over the next year.
He added that the U.S. economy probably contracted at a 5.5 percent
annualized rate in the fourth quarter and would shrink 3.5 percent in
the first quarter of this year.
"After that economic growth is going to depend on the size and timing of
the fiscal package that is being discussed in Washington right now,"
Prakken said.
The Challenger report said heavy job-cutting could continue through at
least the first half of 2009.
Job cuts announced in December totaled 166,348, down 8.4 percent from
November's 181,671, Challenger, Gray & Christmas said. Despite the
monthly decline, layoffs were up from just 44,416 in the year-ago
period. Job losses and plans to lay off workers hammered the struggling
U.S. economy
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