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Investors lost trillions of dollars and U.S. stocks prices plunged to
11-year lows. Overseas markets suffered even worse declines.
Yet, to say that the 2008 market will go down in the history books might
almost sound like whistling past the graveyard. As the U.S. and the
global economies continue to worsen, investors are still licking their
wounds and worrying about 2009.
Looking back to expectations at the start of the year, "the surprise was
not that we had a bear market and a recession," said Hugh Johnson,
chairman of Johnson Illington Advisors.
A year for the record books
To say that the 2008 markets will go down in the history books might
almost sound like whistling past the graveyard. As the U.S. and global
economy continues to worsen, investors are still licking their wounds
and worrying about 2009.
• Best and worst stocks of 2008
First in a special report.
Coming tomorrow: The 2009 outlooks for equities and currencies.
"The surprise was that events were as severe as they turned out," said
the veteran adviser, who has over 40 years experience in the investment
world. "I have been at this for a while and I've never experienced
anything like this. It defies words to describe it."
What can be said is that many things that sounded impossible at the
start of the year now have to be accepted as facts.
After its astonishing surge to nearly $150 a barrel this summer, oil now
trades near $40. The market capitalization of General Motors (GM
General Motors Corporation
GM) is now lower than it was in 1927. Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers (LEHMQ
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc and are no more. In October, a
900-point swing in the Dow industrials became almost commonplace.
"I'd like to use the old roller-coaster ride comparison," said Paul
Nolte, director of investments at Hinsdale Associates. "But it's been
more like a one-way trip down the haunted house."
Trillions lost
In a way, it didn't matter that many market strategists and commentators
often struggled for the right metaphor to describe the market. The
numbers flashing on TV and computer screens across the globe often
spoke, and continue to speak, for themselves.
As of Dec. 12, the Standard & Poor's 500 index ($SPX
S&P 500 Index
had lost $6.17 trillion since hitting record highs in Oct. 2007.
That reduction in global stock wealth has outstripped the losses in the
last bear market - the S&P 500 lost $5.76 trillion during the entire
bear market of 2000-2002. Making matters worse, this one still has room
to run.
Chart of $SPX
By Thanksgiving, many individual investors discovered they would have
been better off sticking their savings under their mattress rather than
the stock market for the past decade.
On Nov. 20, the S&P crashed through the previous bear-market low of 776,
made in October of 2002, to end its lowest close since April 1997.
The U.S. showed it hadn't lost its superpower qualities, as a home-grown
housing bust spiraled into a global market collapse.
The S&P Broad-Market index, which blends more than 11,0000 stocks from
developed and emerging markets, has lost $17.7 trillion year to date.
Most of the losses, or $16.1 trillion, were logged between May and
December.
"Until May, global markets were still expected to grow faster than the
U.S., as China was seen growing more than 10%," said Howard Silverblatt,
index analyst at S&P.
That optimism evaporated as the credit crisis spread around the globe
and the U.S. recession clipped the outlook for global growth.
In November, the World Bank said China's economy is likely to expand at
a 7.5% rate in 2009, its slowest pace since 1990.
Once leaders in emerging markets, stocks in Russia have now plunged 72%,
those in Turkey are off 68%, and those in India have fallen 67%.
In October, Japan's Nikkei 225 hit a 26-year closing low; Iceland's
exchange tumbled 81%, while Brazil's Bovespa index slumped 25%, its
biggest one-month percentage loss in 10 years.
Dow swings
At times earlier in the year, it looked like investors were going to get
a break. After the near-collapse and subsequent bailout of 58-year old
investment firm Bear Stearns in March, markets found some degree of
stability and even gained back some ground until May.
Chart of $INDU
But as more Wall Street institutions crumbled, all beset by investments
linked to bad home loans, fresh selling bruised stocks. After Lehman
Brothers went bankrupt late in September, one of a string of large
financial failures and government bail-outs that month, stock markets
set multidecade records for lows reached and big swings registered.
In October, the S&P 500 had its most volatile month since 1929, right
after the stock market crash that preceded the onset of the Great
Depression.
The Dow plunged to its worst point drop on record, down 777 points, on
Sept.29. By Oct. 15, the index had registered 508- to 733-point drops in
three separate session.
The index also proceeded to surge to its biggest point gain on record,
up 936 points, on Oct. 13.
According to S&P, over the past 60 trading sessions alone, there were 17
days where stocks moved up or down by at least 5%. To put this in
perspective, there had only been 17 days of 5% or more swings over an
entire 53-year period, between 1955 and 2008.
Between Oct. 27 and Nov. 4, the day of U.S. Presidential election,
stocks on the S&P surged more than 18%. But between Nov.4 and Nov. 20,
they proceeded to slide 25%, before gaining more than 16% through Dec.
11.
"Playing those swings correctly, an investor could have made a 72%
return," said S&P's Silverblatt.
Safe havens or 'money for nothing'
But most investors are unlikely to have tried playing the swings. Safety
and preservation of capital became the name of the game for many.
The need to protect one's savings became so pressing that on Dec. 9, the
government sold 4-week Treasury bills at a yield of 0%, meaning that
bond investors were happy to just have the principal they'd lent back to
them without a loss.
The yields on other government bonds, considered the safest among all
investment classes, also reached lows unseen since the government began
keeping records in the 1950s.
While investors opened their wallets to the U.S. government, they lent
very little to anyone else. Commercial paper markets froze after the
Lehman collapse, threatening to put out of business anything from big
banks to small firms dependent on short-term loans. Borrowing costs for
companies surged.
Even banks became increasingly unwilling to lend to each other, as more
took huge write-downs from bad assets. The London interbank offered
rate, or Libor, soared to record highs near 7% after Congress first
rejected a $700 billion bailout for financial firms.
Oil's wild ride
Until July, the one sure bet for the nervous investor had been
commodities.
Hopes for global growth, along with a combination of natural disasters,
geopolitical tensions, a sliding dollar and market speculation, had led
energy and food prices to rocket, causing severe food shortages in
poorer countries.
It was a shock when oil surpassed $100 a barrel in January. But those
prices looked cheap as the futures contracts skyrocketed to $147 a
barrel by July.
That level turned out to be commodity's swan song. It has plunged to
trade around $40 a barrel in December, a swift descent echoed by other
commodities.
"The rise in oil to $147 per barrel and its subsequent decline to $40
was vicious volatility," said Hugh Johnson. "It defies words to describe
it. It certainly made life tough for the year."
Goldman Sachs analysts, who were laughed at back in 2005 when they first
suggested oil might reach $100 in a "super spike," now predict oil could
fall back to $30 a barrel in the coming months.
Gold also hit a record high above $1,000 an ounce in March, before
slumping back below $700. The precious metal, however, has managed to
crawl back to trade above $800 an ounce as investors seek safe-haven
assets.
Besides oil, food stuffs such as corn also first reached record highs
above $6.5 a bushel in June, before sliding back under $4 a bushel amid
fears of a global recession.
A surge in the dollar helped precipitate the collapse of commodities.
The dollar halted its four-year slide around May and proceeded to rally
against most of its counterparts as financial and economic concerns
spread globally, turning the U.S. currency into a safe-haven play, along
with the Japanese yen.
The U.S. currency jumped 13% against a basket of six major counterparts
over the course of the year so far.
Dramatic and record-setting swings in nearly every sector of security
have sent professional investors thumbing through the record books.
Chart of GM
"Nothing compares with the crisis that we have faced," Johnson said
Johnson of Johnson Illington Advisors. The U.S. stock rout already
registers as the fourth-worst bear market since 1898, he said. "It's
clearly historic."
Here's another anecdote of how market perceptions and reactions may have
changed: With the Dow swinging within an 800 point range on Oct.24,
there was little immediate market reaction when Alan Greenspan, the
once-venerated former chairman of the Federal Reserve, admitted to
making a mistake when he testified to Congress.
While every one of his utterances used to be parsed by analysts, few now
reacted when Greenspan said his view of the world might not be right
after all.
"Absolutely, precisely," Greenspan said. "You know, that's precisely the
reason I was shocked, because I have been going for 40 years or more
with very considerable evidence that it was working exceptionally well.
Investors lost trillions of dollars and U.S. stocks prices plunged to
11-year lows |